What is happening to the Atlanta braves?
Atlanta residents are concerned for their Braves as the 2021 World Series Champions are now competing for a wild card spot. But, should they be?
At the time of writing, the Atlanta Braves are second in their division with a record of 45-33. The team came in with high expectations following a World Series win over the Houston Astros last year. However, the team struggled the first part of the season as they were under .500 for quite a bit. But, recently, the team has been on a tear which they’ll need to maintain to find themselves in the dance. The club has lost series to less talented teams such as the Miami Marlins, Chicago Cubs, Texas Rangers, and others and sits at 3.5 games out of first place in their division, the NL East. Excluding the Mets, the East struggled for the first half, but both the Braves and Phillies have found recent success.
There are many reasons for the lackluster start for the Atlanta Braves, but the pitching staff is above average based on many stats. Looking at the club's overall numbers, they are third in xwOBA, third in xBA, and first in overall strikeouts. Despite these good metrics, the team allows tons of walks and is eighth-worst in the league, with 255 total walks this season. Based on these values, we can conclude that the team strikes out many players and doesn't allow many hits but allows many players due to the free pass.
Looking at the individual players, we can see where these dominant numbers are coming from. Starting in the rotation, there are two high-level starters in Max Fried, the ace, and Kyle Wright. Fried has a five-pitch mix which consists of a fastball, curveball, sinker, changeup, and slider. While the team struggles with walks, Fried doesn't, as he is in the 96th percentile for BB% and gets most of his victims by way of the chase as he's in the 94th percentile for Chase Rate. He is currently sitting at a dominant 2.66 ERA with a 164 ERA+ and 2.51 FIP. The southpaw has consistently been one of the top starters in the game for the last few years and is putting together a Cy Young caliber season.
However, while Fried is the bonafide ace, Wright has also been great with a 3.03 ERA, 144 ERA+, and 3.06 FIP. Wright is above average in almost every category but isn’t elite in one area. An interesting thing to note is that Wright only made two starts last year as he spent much of his time in Triple-A improving his game. If anything, Wright is a perfect example of why Braves fans should not fret, as their pitching staff is potentially better than it was last year with the emergence of an incredible season by Wright.
Additionally, The Braves have Ian Anderson, Charlie Morton, Bryce Elder, and Tucker Davidson to round out the starting rotation. Both Anderson and Morton have thrown 15 games while Elder and Davidson have split starts at four apiece. Ian Anderson has declined from the beginning of the season and now sits at a 5.31 ERA, well below league average. Morton has not lived up to his hype or contract in the four slot but has been a solid fourth starter with a slightly below-average ERA. He has an ERA of 4.73 and a FIP of 4.14. Out of the five and six slots, the Braves have Elder and Davidson, who have both shifted in and out of the bullpen. While Elder has the better ERA, Davidson has the better FIP, which is a better metric to determine their pitching this year. Overall, the back half of the rotation isn’t nearly as good as last year’s team, with the lowest ERA+ of the five starters at 83, but the top-end talent beats out the 2021 Braves allowing for a similar or better rotation in comparison to last year.
It's also important to mention that Mike Soroka, a Braves starting pitcher who was an all-star in 2019 and was second in Rookie of the Year voting, is coming back from injury very soon. Soroka had excellent seasons in both 2019 and 2020, which had a 171 ERA+ and 121 ERA+, respectively. Also, in 2019 and 2020, he had a 3.45 FIP and 3.78 FIP, respectively. In my opinion, Soroka will come back strong especially given the vast array of case studies we have seen recently in which pitchers have not skipped a beat when returning from injury. When he returns, this starting rotation will be a juggernaut that will be hard to overcome in a five or seven-game series. Given this, the rotation will most likely end up better than last year’s Braves, giving another reason for Braves fans not to panic.
In the bullpen, quite a few guys can come in and shut the opposing lineup down. The prominent names in the 'pen are Kenley Jansen and A.J Minter, who are having terrific seasons. To this point, Jansen has posted a 2.18 FIP, 20 saves, and four blown saves in 32 games. He also has incredible advanced statistics, including a 98th percentile xwOBA, 98th percentile xERA, 97th percentile xBA, and a 98th percentile K%. To put it simply, Jansen is getting it done as the primary closer.
On the other hand, Minter has an even better FIP at 1.49 with a 1.64 ERA in 33 innings. Even his advanced metrics sit at Jansen’s level as he is posting a 98th percentile xwOBA, xERA, and K%. However, Minter struggles in Barrel% as he is in the 11th percentile, which results in him being in the 64th percentile in Average Exit Velocity. In addition, Atlanta has solid depth in its bullpen, including starter turned into reliever, Collin McHugh. McHugh is posting a 2.56 FIP in 32 innings pitched. They also have Will Smith and Darren O' Day, some big names who are unfortunately not playing too well. Another name that stands out is Spencer Strider, who has pitched in 53 innings and has posted a whopping 2.19 FIP. When comparing the 2022 bullpen to 2021, by a metric of FIP, 2022 tops the World Series Champions giving yet another rationale to not overreact for the citizens of Atlanta.
It's clear that this team’s underperformance in the first few months is not a product of their pitching. While the pitchers have performed all season, the Braves turn around has fallen on the bats. The fundamental problem at the season's beginning was mainly their role players. Before Acuna’s full return to the lineup, only about a month ago, only three full-time starters had a 100 OPS+, meaning two-thirds of the team were hitting below average. That is not the hitting metrics you expect from the former World Series Champions. However, the recent turnaround now features six players above average in OPS+. These players are Matt Olson, Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley, Ronad Acuna Jr., Travis d’Arnaud, and Wilson Contrares.
When looking at their xwOBA, the team ranks fifth league-wide. This is primarily due to the contributions of Riley, who is 25th in the league in xwOBA (.390). Also, Matt Olson sits at the 46th spot (.366). Olson, a significant pickup for the club in the off-season, is taking significantly more walks and is hitting fewer home runs. In this situation, the drop-off in home runs from the beloved Freddie Freeman, that played first base for the Braves last year, is most definitely noticed. But, when it comes playoff time, a player that gets on consistently through any means is a necessary asset. Additionally, the Braves had their superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. back for the duration of their hot streak after missing the start of the season to an injury he suffered last season. He has an OPS+ of 132 and an xwOBA of .403. Acuna is one of the league's top players, and having him back has most likely been the reason for the team's success the last month. Acuna is the X-factor of this team and will give a dramatic boost to the team's offensive production, allowing fans to relax for a bit.
A few of the bright spots have come off the bench. The two well-performing bench players are Orlando Arcia and Micheal Harris, who have a 103 and 131 OPS+, respectively. On the negative side, a few players are having abysmal seasons, including Eddie Rosario, Adam Duvall, Guillermo Heredia, and Travis Demeritte. Starting with Rosario, who filled in for Acuna, posted a -27 OPS+ before his injury. In his 15 games, he had a .068 average, .163 OBP, and a .091 SLG. He is having a historically bad season and has a -1.2 WAR in just 15 games. Based on Acuña’s numbers, his return marks one of the most significant mid-season upgrades in recent memory. While not nearly as bad as Rosario, Duvall, the team's starting center fielder, a player you don’t want tracking down fly balls, is posting a 75 OPS+ with a .205 average, .270 OBP, and a .376 SLG. Another one of the team's offensive liabilities, Heredia, the team's starting outfielder in over half their games, has posted a 54 OPS+ with a .127 average and a .213 OBP. Finally, Demeritte, a right fielder who has started in over a fourth of the club’s games, has posted a 63 OPS+ with a .213 average and a .260 OBP. The bench is the clear spot that hasn’t improved in the team's winning streak and will need to improve if they want to overtake the Mets.
There are many reasons why Atlanta fans should be optimistic about their team maintaining its dominant performance as of late. Fangraphs has the Braves at a 40% chance of winning their division and over a 90% chance to make the playoffs. Fortunately, the NL East is not performing outside of the Mets, and it's time for the Braves to take advantage. The Mets pitching is in chaos as Jacob Degrom is still far away from a return. In addition, Bryce Harper has a thumb injury with a six-week return timeline. Fans should be incredibly optimistic that if their team finds themselves in the dance, they can make a run as the team is built for playoff success. The club has elite top-end starting talent, which is all you need in a series as the back-end of the staff usually goes to the bullpen, a position Morton has succeeded in the past few years. Outside of the starters, the team has elite closers who can shut down opponents in close games. In terms of the bats, the Braves have a younger superstar and a few guys that can get on consistently. If the role players step up, the rest of the league better beware. Atlanta fans should believe that the team can overtake the Mets and maintain their winning streak.
