should Boston move on from Christian Vasquez?
As the Red Sox move on to the American League Championship Series, the team does not have the talent to contend with teams like the Astros and White Sox. Some could say the same thing about the Rays, but the Red Sox were fortunate the Rays staff was shot after injuries plagued them throughout the season. The Red Sox have the superstar talent needed for a World Series push, such as all-stars Rafael Devers, Xander Bogarts, and J.D. Martinez, but they need better role players who provide depth in October if they are truly going to contend each year. Successful teams don't undergo a complete rebuild, instead choosing to go through mini-rebuilds and focus on positions of need. This avoids 70-win seasons, something Boston sports fans have not been accustomed to in the last two decades. It is no mystery when looking at the team's pitching stats that they need help, but a more underlooked position of need is at catcher, which could help improve the staff as well.
The Red Sox primary catcher, and recent hero, Christian Vasquez, has had many memorable moments, none more important than his walk-off home run off Luis Patiño on Sunday. Despite this, it may be time for the Red Sox to part ways with their veteran. At age 31, Vasquez has shown signs of aging this season, and the Red Sox know this too. In the Wild Card game against the Yankees, the biggest game of the year, the Red Sox turned to backup Kevin Plawecki to get the job done behind the dish. Similarly, Plawecki got the start on Sunday while Vazquez came in to pinch-hit. The Red Sox need to start planning for their long-term future, which means seriously considering their better and younger options.
In 2021, Vasquez has not been able to hit or show good recognition of the strike zone. During the regular season, he hit .258 with a .352 slugging percentage and a .659 OPS. His numbers are pretty bleak outside of his batting average, and looking at his advanced statistics helps clarify why he posted a 75 OPS+. In terms of percentile rankings, Vasquez was in the bottom eighth of average exit velocity, the third percentile in xwOBA, and the 19th percentile in BB%. This is likely because his excellent contact approach (89th percentile in whiff%) greatly sacrifices power numbers. Alex Cora, the Red Sox skipper, has previously mentioned that Vazquez is not a power hitter and has stated that if Vazquez chases power, he could end up decreasing what little production he has (don't let one swing of the bat fool you). Despite lackluster hitting numbers this season, he has caught more games than any catcher in the majors for an elite offensive team who currently finds themself in the ALCS.
You'd think with all the playing time and the abysmal hitting stats, he'd be a great defender. This is not the case. Baseball Savant ranks Vasquez 30th in their "Runs Extra Strikes" statistic with a value of 1. This means he does not steal any strikes and virtually does nothing (that appears in the stat sheet) to help his pitcher, evidenced by his strike rate percentage of 48.9% (23rd in the league). The Red Sox pitching staff relies heavily on strikeouts, and it would be highly beneficial for them to throw to a catcher who can steal extra strikes on the fringes of the zone where they frequently live.
Christian Vasquez in 2020, with a “Runs Extra Strikes,” stat of 3. Via Baseball Savant.
Buster Posey in 2016, with a “Runs Extra Strike,” stat of 30. Via Baseball Savant.
It is evident that Vasquez is not playing up to par, and he's not going to get better with age, but what options do the Red Sox have? The answer is quite a few. One player who has seen more playing time out of the DH role is backup catcher Kevin Plawecki. As mentioned before, Cora turned to him in the pivotal Wild Card Game in which he produced an opposite-field double off of potential Cy Young candidate Gerrit Cole. Plawecki is almost as long in the tooth as Vazquez but is still producing at the plate and can serve as a veteran presence if a rookie were to be brought from the minor leagues. Although in fewer attempts, Plawecki was better than Vasquez in nearly every hitting metric this year. His batting average was .287, slugging% .389, and OPS .737. Unfortunately, his defense has also resulted in a measly 1 "Runs Extra Strikes" value.
The Red Sox likely have to look in-house at their three highly-rated catching prospects, Nathan Hickey, Ronaldo Hernadez, and Connor Wong, to get the long-term solution to their catching situation. The last name may seem familiar because Wong was involved in the blockbuster trade that sent former MVP, Mookie Betts, to the Dodgers. All three catchers rank as top 30 Red Sox prospects, according to MLB.com, and as mentioned before, the Red Sox could use backup Kevin Plawecki as a veteran presence to guide these prospects as they enter the bigs.
The highest-ranking, at number 18, goes to Nathan Hickey, who the Sox drafted in the 5th round of the 2021 MLB draft. MLB.com has this to say about him, "Hickey's best tool is his raw power, which grades as at least plus thanks to his bat speed and the loft in his left-handed stroke, but he's more than just a masher. He has a mature approach at the plate and could develop into a solid hitter, though his swing can get long and too uphill at times." They also mention that he struggles behind the plate, including blocking the ball and throwing base runners out. He is a bit farther from the league than the other guys and is probably the least likely to be called up even with his high prospect ranking.
Next, Ronaldo Hernadez is ranked number 22 in the organization. Although only 23 years old, he was signed by Tampa Bay in 2014 after being a highly rated prospect out of Columbia. Eventually, his prospect stock plummeted, and he was dealt to the Red Sox. Hernadez is currently in Triple-A and performed decently well this season. In 346 AB's he's hitting .283 with a .325 OBP and a .831 OPS. He has also added 16 home runs and 54 RBI's to his totals this season. MLB.com's thoughts on him are, "Hernandez is geared to hit for power, with bat speed, strength, loft in his right-handed stroke and a pull-heavy mindset." They also note, he does not see the ball well and rarely takes the free base. In terms of defensive play, he has a plus arm to throw runners out but often has trouble receiving the ball.
Lastly, there is Connor Wong, who ranks 26th in the organization. Although the lowest-ranked, he has been the only one called up to the majors; he was even on the crucial Wild Card roster when the Red Sox beat the Yankees. During his cup of coffee in the majors, he had 13 ABs with four hits and a .357 OBP. This year, in Triple-A, he hit .253 in 190 AB's with a .286 OBP and .713 OPS. Although these stats may seem pedestrian, we can't forget that he is only a year removed from his breakout 2019 season as there was no 2020 season in the minors due to the COVID-19 pandemic. His defensive play is average, but he is a converted catcher who is learning the position quickly.
Additionally, he is quicker than most catchers and has experience at other infield positions. Under Plawecki's wing, Wong will get more experience and will naturally get better behind the dish. To make things easier, Wong and Hernadez are on the 40 man roster and don't need to be added in the offseason, making a move easy if required. Overall, I'd support a Wong/Plawecki battery next year, given he's the most likely to get called to the bigs.
The Red Sox have various options for replacing their current backstop Christan Vasquez so the question becomes not if they should part ways with their long-standing catcher, but how?
Currently, Vasquez has one more year on his deal worth $8 million, or the Red Sox could buy him out for a measly $250,000. If the Red Sox are going to get rid of Vasquez, their options are buying him out or trying to sign and trade him. The most strategic option is opting to pay the $250,000 to cut ties with him. For the Red Sox, $250,000 is not a lot of money, and it's certainly worth it to not have to pay the 8 million dollars they'd owe him.
Some would argue he could be used as a trade piece this offseason given his veteran presence, cheap contract, and the relatively old catching free-agent market this year. Free-agent backstops include the 34-year-old Yan Gomes, the 38-year-old Robinson Chirinos, and the 39-year-old Jeff Mathis (Previewing The 2021-22 Free Agent Class: Catchers). However, the Red Sox would most likely get a haul of middling players due to his age and would probably still have to pick up part of his contract.
The Red Sox should appreciate whatever production they get from Vasquez during the playoffs, knowing that this will be his last year with the team. This offseason is a big one for the Red Sox, who are within striking distance of becoming AL Champions. To do so, the front office needs to make a few upgrades as a play for the 2022 season and the team's long-term future. The Sox can't be afraid to shake things up by getting rid of a fan-favorite veteran (he's not Pedroia or Big Papi), and a minor rebuild would signal to Red Sox fans that the team is looking to the future without enduring a complete teardown.
