Jesús Sánchez and the future of the Miami marlins
Excluding the shortened 2020 season, the Marlins have been one of the worst MLB teams in recent memory. But, assuming the 2022 season is played, could this be the year they turn things around?
They finished the 2021 campaign with an abysmal 67-95 record after a hopeful 2020 season, and it's fair to say that things took a turn for the worst for Kim Ng, the team's General Manager, and Derek Jeter, the club's CEO. Unlike his playing days, Jeter is being questioned by the fanbase. Is it warranted? We'll find out. However, there is reason to believe this could be the year the Fish threatened the NL East.
While the future of the Marlins starting rotation looks terrific with six bright young starters, the team has failed to hit the mark (or the ball) on the offensive side. Last year, their offense was among the worst in the league—Jesús Aguilar was the only Marlin in 2021 to have a WRC+ of above 100 (above average) while playing at least half of the team's games. The Marlins offense was flat last season, but they have bright spots around the field that may turn around the losing culture.
During the ongoing MLB lockout, many players have opted to play in the Dominican Winter League (DMWL) during the offseason. A few Marlins are taking the opportunity to work on their games, including breakout outfielder Jesús Sánchez. In the DMWL, there are loads of players on each roster due to the limited number of teams, but Sánchez has racked up the seventh most plate appearances on his squad, Toros del Este. The Toros have double-digit MLB players, including some big names such as Yasiel Puig and Josh Reddick.
Hitting statistics of Toros Del Este via Baseball Reference
In his 71 at-bats, Sánchez crushes opposing pitching with an average of .324, an SLG% of .465, and an OPS of .893. It's essential to remember that DMWL pitching is quite competitive—rosters are filled with big-league pitchers. Sánchez leads the team in batting average among qualified players.
In his 2021 campaign, Sánchez was one of the few lone bright stars on Marlin's offense after he compiled a .251 batting average with 14 bombs in 227 at-bats. He also posted a 116 OPS+, xwOBA of .337, and a bWAR of 1.3. Another bonus for the Marlins is that he is only 24 years old. Looking at his advanced statistics, Sánchez was top 10% in the league in Max Exit Velocity (Max EV) with 113.9 mph. He also has wicked speed and is top 3% in outfielder jump, providing the foundation for his elite defense in the outfield. Though his speed doesn't show up much on the bases, the Marlins attempted steals at the 4th highest rate in the big leagues, and it's possible Sánchez could add a few to their total.
Jesús Sánchez statistics via Baseball Savant
Looking ahead to 2022, it's safe to say that Sánchez needs to be a starter for this developmental squad. Fangraphs has Sánchez hitting in the five-hole while starting at left field for the upcoming season. Additionally, Baseball-Reference has him hitting a similar line to last year with a .242 batting average, 14 bombs, .755 OPS, and a .440 SLG% in 298 at-bats. In some aspects, they have Sánchez hitting worse than in 2021, but this is primarily due to the low-reliability rate Baseball-Reference offers for their projection (53%). That means that 47% of their estimated results are based on regression to the MLB mean. Overall, this is a very conservative projection, especially with the numbers Sánchez is posting in the DMWL. Assuming Sánchez will get the nod in left field next year, he should get 500 at-bats barring a terrible injury. Considering his international play, it would not be surprising if he posts a high .200's batting average with 25 plus home runs and a .800 plus OPS.
Jesús Sánchez projection for 2022 season via Baseball Reference
A potential player comparison to Sánchez is his teammate, Jazz Chisholm. Both lefties at 24 years of age, one could say Sánchez outplayed Chisholm last year. Although Sánchez had considerably fewer at-bats, Chisholm only hit four more bombs with 18. He had a similar batting average to Sánchez at .248 and worse OPS+ at 96 (below average). Chisholm is a more highly regarded player and generates much more buzz than Sánchez, but is he, in fact, the better player? Chisholm did not play up to his potential last year, posting a bottom 25% xwOBA and bottom 40% xSLG. Regardless, both are up-and-coming superstars who will only get better with the veteran leadership the Marlins have placed their supporting cast.
Before the lockout, the Marlins went out and acquired quite a few veteran bats for their subpar offense. First, they re-signed Miguel Rojas, who may have taken a hometown discount to stay in Miami. The 32-year-old captain has been part of the rebuild from the beginning and, similar to many of the veterans, can teach and develop the young prospects alongside the coaching staff. Second, the Marlins signed Avisail Garcia, the 30-year-old outfielder. Garcia had a great season with the Brewers last season and hopes to continue his success in Florida. Following a similar theme, Garcia can likely help Sánchez and the young Marlins develop. Third, the Marlins traded three prospects for the Pirates catcher, Jacob Stallings. The 32-year-old filled a glaring hole at the catcher position that needed to be addressed before spring training. Finally, the Marlins traded for All-Star second baseman from the Rays, Joey Wendle. Wendle is just another example of a long-tenured player who still has value but can also bring along his younger teammates around him. According to FanGraphs, this bundle of veteran bats will be starters for the 2022 season.
Outside of the Miami fanbase, it's common knowledge the Marlins are not going to be World Series contenders overnight, but incremental jumps will be sufficient. If the Marlins can get 10 to 15 more wins to sit roughly at a .500 record, it will show signs of improvement and progress towards becoming contenders. The club's youth will need a few years to develop, but the addition of proven veterans will expedite their evolution. Also, it's important to note that the NL East is a relatively weak division. Last year, the Braves ran away with the division with 88 wins. While the Phillies showed hope last year, their superstar Bryce Harper cannot carry the team on his own. The Mets did go out and sign big free agents, but it's still unclear if they can stay healthy, and their management is in shambles. The Nationals are not much of a problem, and it will take time to build a competent contender around Juan Soto. In general, the Marlins are years away from contention, but they have reasons to be optimistic about their rotation and some high ceiling pieces throughout the lineup card. Their rebuild will have to consist of bullpen pitchers and a true impact bat, but they have a foundation to build upon. Now the question is, will their young stars produce in time for Derek Jeter's rebuild to be a success?
