Why Is Nobody Talking About Kyle Tucker?
To put it simply, he is extremely unlucky.
Kyle Tucker is a 24-year-old right fielder for the Houston Astros selected with the fifth overall pick in the 2015 draft. Throughout high school and the minors, his swing was compared to Ted Williams, and his choice not to wear batting gloves reminds fans of a bygone era. He is a free-swinger but has a smooth “arm bar” left-handed swing that allows him to uppercut the baseball and generate enough launch angle to hit home runs. However, despite his throwback appearance, when you get into the details, he fits the mold of a modern superstar with a good mix of power and contact.
If we’re going to analyze Kyle Tucker’s performance (and others for that matter) it’s important to have an understanding of the distinction between traditional and expected statistics. Expected statistics are stats modified from a player's original numbers to adjust for a mixture of variables such as park factors. Park factors are inconsistencies in stadiums that can contribute to a given result (think a popup that goes out to right in Yankee stadium that would be caught in all 29 other ballparks). Objectively, expected statistics are better metrics to evaluate a player's talent than actual production because they literally put every player on a level playing field. That being said, expected statistics aren’t perfect. They don’t take into account a variety of variables such as pitch availability based on lineup strength or if a player is playing through an injury. But, expected statistics are still the best statistics we have because they are much more unbiased than conventional stats.
The statistics that will be used in this article are xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA. These stand for expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, and expected weighted on-base average.
According to MLB.com’s glossary, expected batting average (xBA) is, “a Statcast metric that measures the likelihood that a batted ball will become a hit.” An example of this is, “a line drive to the outfield with an xBA of .700 is given that figure because balls with a similar exit velocity and launch angle have become hits seven out of 10 times.” Expected Slugging Percentage (xSLG) is calculated using a variety of factors including exit velocity and launch angle. Expected slugging percentage applies the same weight for extra-base hits as the normal slugging percentage. Finally, expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) is similar to slugging percentage as it gives weight to the different outcomes of a plate appearance. The calculation is rather lengthy yet intuitive, and for those interested it is as follows: (unintentional BB factor x unintentional BB + HBP factor x HBP + 1B factor x 1B + 2B factor x 2B + 3B factor x 3B + HR factor x HR)/(AB + unintentional BB + SF + HBP).
In general, although it has some flaws, I consider xwOBA to be the best hitting metric because it takes into account every scenario in a plate appearance while xBA and xSLG don’t value walks.
In Kyle Tucker’s case, we can surmise he has been the recipient of bad luck because his expected values are much higher than his actual statistics. This means that either defenses are making stunning plays against him, teams are shifting against him particularly effectively, he has been inept at “hitting ‘em where they ain’t,” or he is falling victim to the dimensions of the stadiums he is playing at.
Looking into the numbers, Kyle Tucker’s xBA is .308 while his normal batting average is .278. That is a 3% margin which turns out to be the difference in the career averages of Pablo Sandoval and Mike Piazza. To put this in perspective, at the time of this writing, Kyle Tucker’s xBA is the fifth-best out of all qualifying MLB players while his batting average is 62nd. We’re talking about receiving a few down-ballot MVP votes versus being considered a “solid player.”
There is a noticeably similar trend with the other two statistics as well. Kyle Tucker’s xSLG is .573 while his slugging percentage is .523. Again, there is a massive variation between the two. In terms of rankings, his xSLG is 11th best in the majors while his slugging percentage ranks 31st. Finally, his xwOBA is .400 while his wOBA .364. This is another substantial jump in rankings. His xwOBA ranks 12th while his wOBA ranks 53rd among qualifying players.
It should be apparent that Kyle Tucker is indeed unlucky. But is a stroke of good luck enough to turn Tucker into a superstar or are there things he can work on to expedite the process? Arguably, his biggest flaw comes in the walks department. According to Baseball Savant, he is in the 45th percentile of walk percentage meaning he is worse than average at taking the free base. This is the direct byproduct of his chase percentage (amount of pitches out of the strike zone that a player swings at). His chase percentage is in the 54th percentile out of all qualifying major leaguers meaning he is just above average at not swinging at pitches outside of the zone. If he could lower his chase rate it would likely increase his walk rate and make him a more complete hitter. Undoubtedly, the league would eventually adjust and begin to throw him more pitches in the zone, but he has shown an elite ability to punish pitches thrown for strikes as evidenced by the heat map below.
Hot Zone Map of Kyle Tucker’s SLG percentage by zone (via Baseball Savant)
Another flaw is Tucker’s inability to hit sinkers and sliders. According to Baseball Savant, his run value against these pitches this year is negative three, while his xwOBA is .313 against the slider and .370 against the sinker. These numbers are substantially lower than his numbers against the fastball in which his xwOBA is .431. Tucker has had a very difficult time dealing with these two pitches in 2021. The only pitches he has fared worse against are sliders in 2020 (shortened season due to COVID-19) and changeups in 2019.
In terms of production, Austin Riley has had very similar numbers. This year, Austin Riley’s OPS+ is 127 (league average is 100) while Tucker’s is 134. They are both slugging at a .519 clip, though Riley’s OBP is .368 and Tucker’s is .338. Riley is a highly touted player, often regarded as one of the players ushering in the next great era of power hitters. He was recently featured on MLB network in a feature to talk with Mark DeRosa about his approach (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BIEPb3TK-fs). If you're high on Riley, which many are, you should be especially high on Tucker given his unluckiness and the numbers he has managed to put up.
In conclusion, Kyle Tucker has the talent to be an all-star, and if he works on a few things he can be a superstar. Although his production numbers have been limited due to his bad luck, he has a very strong case against the Astros when he gets to arbitration because of his tremendous expected statistics. Currently, he is getting paid $623,300 but his next deal will undoubtedly be in the tens of millions. Tucker is the perfect young player to build the future of the Astros around, and if he keeps it up, we could see the Astros holding another trophy over their heads soon—this time without trash cans.
