How Has Christian Yelich Regained His Elite Level Status?
Christian Yelich was sitting on top of the National League throne in 2018. During his MVP season, he hit .326 with a .598 SLG. However, traditional metrics don’t do his season justice. More importantly, Yelich had a wOBA of .422 and a WAR of 7.3. After receiving his MVP award, Yelich’s agent, Joe Longo, recounts, “He looked at me and said, ‘Can you believe all of this? How do I deserve all of this?’ He was like a king.’’
Before the 2020 season, Yelich, the Brewers' left-fielder, put pen to paper on a nine-year, $215 million contract extension after finishing second in MVP voting and a year removed from an MVP campaign. However, after fracturing his kneecap on a foul ball in 2019, Yelich hasn’t been the same. From 2020 through 2022, Yelich has been near average, posting a .745 OPS with 35 homers in nearly 1,400 plate appearances. Yet, in 2023, Yelich may have found his stroke again. He sits third among left-fielders in WAR this season. With improved defense, refined mechanics, and a new mentality, Yelich may eventually return to his MVP self.
Many fans believe this surge by Yelich is due to the banned shift from the MLB in 2023. However, Yelich’s spray chart (inserted below) tells a different narrative. Yelich has been consistently poking the ball to left field, meaning infielders wouldn’t effectively shift to the right side anyway. While Yelich has always hit the ball to all parts of the field, he has never put such an emphasis on the opposite field. This change to his approach and mechanics has slotted him in at fifth among qualified hitters’ opposite field rates since the beginning of 2022, with a .416 mark.
Christian Yelich's 2023 Spray Chart via Baseball Savant
“In the big leagues, you always have to adapt, always have to make adjustments to improve,’’ Yelich told USA TODAY Sports. “It’s adapt or die in this league. If you don’t adapt, you don’t last long.”
This year, Yelich’s adaptation is the toe tap. While he experimented with the toe tap in 2022, Yelich now consistently uses it to align his feet before making a final open stride, resulting in less movement to get his foot down. This has a few implications. First, a toe tap allows for a more consistent load than a leg kick. Consistency is vital for Yelich, who, in 2021 and 2022, had one of the best Max Exit Velocity (MaxEV) numbers in the league but couldn’t keep his Average Exit Velocity (AEV) at an elite mark. Therefore, Yelich has retained his power since his MVP season but has been unable to perform consistently. With a uniform stride, timing shouldn’t be an issue for Yelich now that his foot gets down earlier. Finally, as noted by Esteban Rivera on Fangraphs, the toe tap “has probably helped him get his feet under him while making a more aggressive bat tip.” Rivera writes, “The result of this change is a flatter vertical entry angle (VEA) that can get on plane to a pitch both more smoothly and more quickly. Given that his vertical bat angle (VBA) – the angle of the barrel at contact – has stayed the same, a flatter VEA results in a quicker transition into the contact point... It’s the perfect recipe for a hitter to hit a bunch of hard line drives to the opposite field.”
Another contributing factor to Yelich’s resurgence is his focus on mental health. Like many athletes, Yelich heard the noise after failing to reach his previous highs with a new contract.
“No matter what you do, even if you try to avoid it, you’re going to find it. I’ve heard all the [stuff] about me the past few years, and it [upsets] you in a sense, but it’s part of the game. You sign a big deal, you don’t play as well as you did before that, you’re gonna hear [stuff]. It comes along with the territory,” Yelich said to MLB.com. To combat this, Yelich “unplugged” and “went off the grid” this offseason and came back re-energized.
These changes would not have been possible absent Yelich’s work ethic, which teammates and coaches note.
“He never makes excuses,’’ Brewers GM Matt Arnold told USA TODAY Sports, “always wants to be put in the lineup. Always posts. It’s a credit to his work ethic and what he means to our team. He was the best hitter on the planet for a while, and when he was injured and going through a lot of challenges, he still came in every day with a smile on his face, great energy, and set the tone for us. A great, great leader.”
While Yelich will most likely not return to MVP form, his commitment to improving allows him to remain an elite outfielder in today’s game. However, with a hefty contract that still has five years remaining, fans will always be disappointed, given the expectation Yelich created for himself in 2018 and 2019.
With Yelich’s help, the Milwaukee Brewers sit on top of the National League Central and will most likely make the playoffs. The NL, however, is loaded with talent, from the Braves in the East to the Dodgers in the West. If the Brewers want a chance at a ring, they’ll need to find an MVP-level performance from Yelich.
